Algarve Portugal Weather / Climate - all change

Algarve, Portugal, 2071 - climate change forecast.

The Algarve is the hogwash capital for claims about having an ideal climate and perfect weather; the truth is there for everyone to research, especially regarding climate change. The fact is, even the Portuguese scientists and the EU officially concede The Algarve is going to be more like the Sahara Desert in 50+ years time. Oh, you probably will not be alive in 50 years time you say! But your children and / or grandchildren will, we are talking investment here and the Algarve turning into a very hot, very large sand pit is a painfully gradual event which is taking place right now.

Below is an extended forecast map from the leading EU research center for climate change, the Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France. This map shows where various cities are predicted to be climate wise in 2071, basically everybody is going to be a little warmer. The average temperature increase by 2050 for Portugal is forecast by the EU to be 6 to 7º Celsius (See Portuguese Report) with around 50% to 80% less rainfall for the Algarve (see: EU water scarcity predictions for Portugal). Of course there will be peaks and troughs even in this nightmare scenario and probably do not need to remind many people that like that 15,000 people died during the French heat wave of 2003.

Quite a scary fact is that the Algarve could well have a climate similar to Ouarzazate (Ouarzazate weather) in the Sahara / Morocco by 2071; not quite the green, warm paradise portrayed by Algarve villa salespeople huh?!

According to a study published in the June 15th 2007 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, The Mediterranean area (including the Algarve) is one of the areas most susceptible to climate change and is expected to experience more warming and drying than other parts of the world. This report continues “The number of days where the heat index reaches dangerous levels would rise by an average of 40 more days a year” and study co-author Jeremy Pal is quoted as saying “You wouldn't want to be here in the summer”.

The EU’s own predictions (authored by Portuguese scientists) in their climate change technical report of 2007 estimate the mean average flow of Portugal’s rivers in the Algarve, which directly correlate to rainfall, predict a reduction of 50%. Fifty percent less river water / rainfall is not just a fire hazard (memories of Portugal 2006) and hosepipe ban, it also equates to a severe health risk as the water table will become increasingly contaminated from harmful bacteria and chemicals.

The same (EU) report however forecasts river flow / rainfall will at worst drop by only 10% on the Iberian Peninsula north of the River Douro / Porto. It is an irony that along with the Météo-France temperature forecast, anyone buying a property in Galicia (Spain) or the Costa Verde (Portugal) will enjoy present day Algarve weather conditions around 2050! Be warned, the Algarve already has a water problem; it seems it is only going to get worse, much worse.